Damning leaked report says officers had to use own phones as equipment shortages led to chaos in forces’ response

Frontline police had to use their own mobile phones during the August riots, after the official radio system collapsed and some forces lost control of the situation to the extent that they had no idea how many officers were on duty, according to a withering internal appraisal of the response to the disorder.

The Police Federation review, which has been leaked to the Observer, reveals that policing failures during the disorder were so serious that the body set up to co-ordinate the response to a national emergency was ineffective for the “first 48 hours of the disturbance”. During that period the violence spread from the capital across the country.

The Police National Information Co-ordination Centre, which supports officers working with the Cabinet Office crisis management team, Cobra, “did not work efficiently” during the initial two days of rioting, according to the official assessment.

The report is the first detailed account of the riots from the viewpoint of the rank-and-file police, who felt that some officers were left “directionless” due to severe communication failures.

Among the failings highlighted by the federation, which represents 136,000 officers, were chronic problems, particularly in London with the hi-tech digital Airwave radio network. Its failings were one reason why officers were “always approximately half an hour behind the rioters”. This partly explained, it said, why officers kept arriving at areas from where the disorder had moved on.

The Airwave network was supposed to improve the way emergency services in London responded to a crisis after damning criticism for communication failures following the 7 July bombings in 2005.

It is being relied upon to ensure that police officers will be able to communicate with each other from anywhere in Britain when the Olympics come to London next summer. The federation wants a review into why the multibillion-pound system collapsed, leaving officers to rely on their own phones.

“Officers on the ground and in command resorted, in the majority, to the use of personal mobile phones to co-ordinate a response,” says the report.

Contributing to the chaos were varying shift patterns that hampered the mobilisation of officers and led to a situation where “forces often did not know how many officers they had on or off shift”. Severe equipment shortages among officers – some were transported to hotspots in school buses – also became quickly apparent as the riots took hold. Even those who arrived at the correct location were in effect redundant.

“Mutual aid officers were often dispatched without enough equipment. They therefore could not be mobilised in a public-order capacity as all the riot gear was in use,” the report says. Many found that no arrangements had been made for their welfare.

“There were no contingency plans for the mutual aid officers once they arrived, in terms of accommodation, catering and equipment.” Further up the chain of command, senior officers were forced to improvise due to structural failings. “Command structures were also ad hoc. Mutual aid officers in some instances blended into the public order strategy seamlessly while in other areas they were left entirely directionless.”

It adds that senior officers took charge in some places “often without having the local knowledge of the areas” making it easier to be outmanoeuvred by rioters. Only because of a nearby football match in Tottenham were mounted police available during the early disorder in north London, prompting the question “of how well Tottenham officers would have coped without this opportune support”.

An interim report by the Met into the riots conceded last week that police did not have enough officers on the streets at the time and were slow to deploy those they did have.

The chief inspector of constabulary, Sir Denis O’Connor, has also urged a rethink on intelligence, an issue highlighted in detail by the federation’s evidence, which detected a “fundamental intelligence problem” between police and the local community.

It said: “Community links in the affected areas were often ‘out of date’… Anecdotal evidence suggests that many officers were aware of the levels of ‘disenfranchisement’ and the potential for a public order incident, however they had very little specific intelligence to go on.

“When the disorder then erupted it was difficult to call upon community links that may have been able to calm the situation.”

The riots began in Tottenham following the police shooting of Mark Duggan, 29. Confusion over the circumstances of his death led to rumours on social media networks that he had been “assassinated” by police. The report says that it is “essential” in future that an early press statement is available and agreed by senior investigators and all relevant parties.

The findings have been submitted to the ongoing review into public order policing, which was announced in the aftermath of the riots.

The report also reveals that fear of criticism over heavy-handed tactics led to the initially cautious policing approach in Tottenham, which was subsequently blamed for encouraging rioters elsewhere in the country.

Officers were hamstrung, it says, through fear of being condemned by politicians and the media and were mired in a “damned if they do and damned if they don’t” mindset as the disorder began.

The report cites the criticism that followed the hardline approach to the G8 and G20 summit protests, in 2005 and 2009, as a factor in what was later deemed to be an excessively cautious initial response by police to the riots.

“A direct consequence has been a muddled approach to public order training in subsequent years where erring on the side of caution has become the norm during public order scenarios. This approach led to accusations of ‘timidity’ and allowing rioters to ‘run amok’,” states the report.

Already, signs are emerging that public order policing in the future will be less conciliatory. Last week it emerged the Metropolitan Police is training more officers to support its baton-round teams while considering the deployment of three water cannons to cover London and the south east. O’Connor told MPs that the existing reliance on cautionary tactics needed to be revised in favour of a “go forward and arrest” strategy to disperse rioters.

Interestingly, the report found that social networks “provided essential intelligence that was not, and would not, have been available through conventional methods”, an assertion that could affect the government’s threat of a clampdown on social media sites following the riots.

It also identifies several concerns for the future, in particular in relation to the introduction of locally elected police commissioners with the federation warning they could “add another layer of confusion” during the policing response to future disturbances.

Bahrain’s interior ministry says small blast near embassy in Manama was caused by bomb under a parked minibus

A bomb has exploded near the British embassy in Manama, the Bahraini capital, according to the country’s interior ministry.

“Given the strength of the explosion and the debris it scattered, it was a highly explosive substance that was used,” a ministry spokesman tweeted from a news conference. “The explosion was the result of a package placed under the front tyre,” he said. He described the vehicle as a minibus parked some 50 metres from the embassy compound.

A Foreign Office spokesman said there were no casualties or damage to the compound as a result of the blast, which occurred at around 1.30am. “We are working with Bahrain’s interior ministry and we have requested a temporary increase in security,” he said. “We cannot yet identify the cause or the responsibility.”

There has been widespread tension in Bahrain since pro-democracy protests erupted in February after revolts in Egypt and Tunisia. The government imposed martial law for nearly three months and ordered mass detentions and trials to crush the protests.

The government, dominated by the Sunni Muslim Al Khalifa family, said the protests, led by majority Shias, had sectarian motives and were fomented by Iran. A government-sponsored fact-finding commission led by international rights lawyers said last month there was no evidence of Iranian interference but Bahrain said there was incitement by the Iranian media.

A diplomatic crisis between Iran and Britain deepened last week after youths stormed the British embassy in Tehran to protest against economic sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear energy programme.

London withdrew its diplomats from Tehran and expelled Iranian diplomats from Britain. Other European countries withdrew envoys from Tehran last week in support of Britain. Iran denies its nuclear programme is aimed at developing nuclear weapons.

Deputy prime minster pledges to publish proposals to curb ‘irresponsible and unjustifiable’ private sector pay rises

Nick Clegg has committed the government to a crackdown on excessive executive pay, saying that austerity in the public sector had to be balanced by curbs on “irresponsible and unjustifiable” pay rises in the private sector.

The deputy prime minister said that ministers would publish firm proposals next month, and the government was willing to legislate if necessary on measures that could include forcing firms to let workers sit on the remuneration committees setting pay rates for top executives.

“Just as we have been quite tough on unsustainable and unaffordable things in the public sector, we now need to get tough on irresponsible and unjustified behaviour of top remuneration of executives in the private sector,” Clegg said in an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.

“I think we need to make sure that people in the public sector do not feel that they are doing all the heavy lifting, that people who are in a sense living by completely different rules in the private sector are also held to account.”

Clegg said he was not opposed to people being paid well if they succeeded. “What I abhor is people who get paid bucketloads of cash in difficult times for failing,” he said.

Clegg spoke as Lord Hutton, the former Labour cabinet minister who led the government’s review on public sector pensions, said new figures showing Britain is poorer than previously thought meant that pension cuts were even more essential than ever.

Hutton said that Tuesday’s report from the Office for Budget Responsibility showed that the assumptions underpinning the report Hutton published in March had now been found to be “too optimistic”.

Hutton told the BBC: “The ground underneath those estimates has changed radically and I’m afraid in the wrong direction so we cannot be sure that the costs will fall over time and that we get to a more sustainable balance.”

With public sector workers being penalised by cuts to their pensions and curbs on their pay, Clegg used his Marr interview to assert that the government was also taking action to deal with excesses in the private sector.

In September, at the Liberal Democrat conference, Vince Cable, the business secretary, announced two consultations covering executive pay. Clegg said those consultations were now over and the government would be publishing its response next month.

Although he stressed that final decisions had not been taken, Clegg signalled three areas where the government was minded to impose reform.

First, shareholders could be encouraged to take a more active role in restraining pay.

“Shareholders should be given a proper say,” he said. “They own the companies, after all. Far too often shareholders are given a blizzard of information they don’t understand and they then don’t have a binding say over what executives get paid.”

Second, firms could be forced to put workers on remuneration committees. And, third, they could be forced to publish information about the gap between average earnings and top earnings in their company.

Clegg said the government agreed with many of the recommendations from the High Pay Commission, the body set up by the leftwing pressure group Compass which published a report last month. “They did really extremely good work,” Clegg said.

Clegg said he was particularly outraged by a recent report saying that directors working for FTSE 100 companies had had pay rises up by 49%. He said they were getting the extra money even though their firms were not doing any better and that this was “a real slap in the face for millions of people in this country who are struggling to make ends meet”.

With the bank bonus season looming, the controversy about excessive executive pay is likely to continue. On Sunday, one report claimed that RBS, which is 83% owned by the taxpayer, is expected to pay £500m in bonuses to its investment bankers, while another newspaper claimed that about 24,100 staff at Barclays Capital, the bank’s investment arm, are due to receive pay and bonuses worth an average £210,000.

In his Marr interview, Clegg also insisted the Lib Dems would be able to fight the next election on a different policy platform to the Tories even though the autumn statement means both parties are now committed to spending cuts after 2015.

Clegg said that, even though both parties were agreed on the need for cuts, they would not necessarily agree on where those cuts should fall.

As examples of Lib Dem priorities, he said wealthy pensioners should lose the right to free bus passes and free TV licences and that the costs of replacing Trident should be cut.

Police believe lodger Barry Morrow may have travelled abroad after mother and daughter found dead in house

Police investigating the deaths of a woman and her 75-year-old mother are trying to trace the daughter’s lodger.

The bodies of Angela Holgate, who was 54, and her mother, Alice Huyton, were found at Holgate’s house in Southport at 5.45pm on Saturday.

It is unclear how the women died, and police are awaiting the results of post-mortem examinations.

Merseyside police, who are treating the deaths as suspicious, are keen to trace Holgate’s lodger, Barry Morrow.

The 51 year old — who is understood to be an engineer — is described as white, 5ft 7in, of medium to stocky build with straight, short brown receding hair and blue eyes.

It is thought he may be in France or Spain. Holgate’s white Citroen is also missing.

Chief Superintendent Nikki Holland, area commander for Sefton, said: “We are investigating the tragic deaths of these two women and our sympathy goes to their families.

“Detectives are investigating the circumstances around these deaths and are trying to piece together the women’s last movements.

“We are appealing to anyone with any information that may help us with this investigation to come forward as soon as possible.

“In particular we are keen to trace Mr Morrow, who lived at the house for a period of time and who we believe may have vital information for this investigation.”

Forensic experts are examining the scene, while officers are carrying out house-to-house inquiries and have stepped up high-visibility patrols.

Huyton was last seen on Friday evening when she left her home in Southport to visit her daughter, who had been ill recently and had not been seen out of the house for some time.

Witnesses or anyone with information should call detectives on 0151 777 3165 or Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

While a mayoral election poll has put Johnson in the driving seat, Livingstone’s promise of lower fares is popular

The political importance of transport in London has been firmly underlined in the past couple of weeks, with the two frontrunners for next year’s mayoral election vying for advantage like irate motorists at a red light. A new opinion poll has placed Conservative incumbent Boris Johnson in the electoral driving seat with an eight-point lead. But respondents also made clear their wish for lower public transport fares, a treat that Labour’s Ken Livingstone has been promising.

The Labour camp is taking heart. The celebrity Tory’s multitude of media cheerleaders and chums are gently warning him to get his finger out. Expect his response to combine protestations of financial responsibility with a diversion of our attention towards Christmas period novelties such as the introduction of the first of his (pretty good) new-style London buses and the completion of his (pretty pointless) removal of the “bendy” variety – two conspicuous incarnations of what a London Labour MP, not a fan of Livingstone, describes as Johnson’s “cakes and ale” mayoralty.

George Osborne, whose boss will do all he can afford to keep Johnson in City Hall – and therefore out of his hair in the House of Commons for as long as possible – has tried to help. His autumn statement’s cap on national rail fare increases means that the 7% hike across the public transport tariff board that was heading Londoners’ way in January will be reduced to 5.6%. Vague and qualified support for new ways for cars to cross the Thames have enabled Johnson to generate headlines suggesting that a great string of brilliant bridges and terrific tunnels are practically half-built already.

The task for his “underdog” challenger is to drag working Londoners’ attention back to transport basics, especially their relationship to spending power. I hope it works: Livingstone’s vision for transport was far more coherent than Johnson’s in 2008, and the latter’s priorities in office have been regressive policies and self-promotion. But the wider truth confronting all candidates for mayor is that they’re short of room for bolder manoeuvres.

That’s the squeezed economy for you, stupid. Livingstone said in a recent speech that under Johnson Transport for London (TfL) has hoarded a crock of cash big enough to maintain an investment programme as well as sustain his fare deal pledge, but every pound less he’d take in fares would be a pound less for him to spend. He’s already ruled out reversing Johnson’s halving of the congestion charge zone, blaming set-up costs, even though the Tory’s vote-seeking decision has deprived TfL of at least £50m a year in income. He’s talked of trams and of reviving other schemes that Johnson has canned, but how persuasive will he be given any mayor’s dependence on the Treasury and voters’ reluctance to trust him?

The Conservative alternative looks set to be just more of the same: steadfast defence of motorists’ privileges; high-profile half-measures for cyclists; media-pleasing lobbying for an estuary airport in Kent that London mayors have no authority to build. Meanwhile, bus usership is rising – it often does when money’s tight because it’s cheaper than driving or the tube – with capacity, as the London assembly’s assiduous Liberal Democrats as well as Labour keep pointing out, failing to keep pace. And, of course, those fares will keep on rising too.

London transport’s ideal direction of travel would be much greener, much cleaner, towards cheaper public transport and far more in favour of pedal and pedestrian power. More road-pricing not less would literally help clear the way, enabling the capital’s economy to flow more efficiently and its top tier of government to raise a lot of money too: a market remedy for social and economic ills that’s been backed by free-enterprise thinkers from Milton Friedman to Edward Glaeser. Yet the Lib Dems’ proposal for a clean air zone is about the only potentially transformative idea knocking around. It’s early days in the election campaign, but these are pragmatic times. London mayors have more control over transport than anything else, but the austerity age highlights yet again how limited even those controls are.

Western donors who give millions to fight spread of virus threaten to cut aid over law driven by religious homophobia

A bill to outlaw gay marriage in Nigeria could jeopardise millions of dollars of western aid given to help stop the spread of HIV and Aids in Africa’s most populous nation.

Nigeria has the continent’s second highest number of people living with the disease, says the United Nations. More than three million people are infected and many do not know their status.

“There are about 400,000 people on anti-retrovirals in Nigeria at the moment and 95% of those are paid for by donor funds,” said public health doctor and health blogger Chikwe Ihekweazu.

Gay sex has been banned in Nigeria since British colonial rule. Gay and lesbian people face open discrimination in a country divided by Christians and Muslims who almost uniformly oppose homosexuality. In parts of the north where sharia law has been enforced for about a decade, they can face death by stoning.

Under the proposed law passed by the Senate, same-sex couples who marry could face up to 14 years each in prison. Witnesses or anyone who helps a marriage could be sentenced to 10 years. The bill also punishes the “public show of same-sex amorous relationships directly or indirectly” with 10 years in prison.

A newly added power, punishing those found guilty of organising, operating or supporting gay clubs, organisations and meetings with a 10-year sentence, worries advocates in Nigeria. They fear the law could be used against groups providing assistance for HIV and Aids outreach programmes that traditionally consider gay men as an at-risk group.

“We work with them trying to reduce their risk factors, trying to make them more healthy and have safer sex practices,” said Meyiwa Ede of the Society for Family Health, which is funded by donations. “If we can’t work with them anymore, then they are vulnerable.”

Lawmakers playing to the religious antipathy towards gays and lesbians have said donor nations who threaten to cut aid over the bill can keep their assistance, putting at risk the lives of people reliant on anti-retroviral drugs.

The US and British governments funnel huge sums into Nigeria for Aids and HIV outreach. The US, under the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief, has given an average of $308m (£197m) a year to groups working in HIV prevention, treatment, and support, according to the US Consulate in Lagos.

Britain spends an average of £19.9m a year on HIV/Aids programmes in Nigeria, the Abuja office of the Department for International Development, funding which local partners spend on projects for gay and straight people. Heterosexual sex accounts for 80% of HIV transmissions in Nigeria, the National Agency for the Control of Aids reported recently.

David Cameron recently threatened to cut British aid to countries that discriminate against gays and lesbians. Both the US and UK governments say they are watching the Nigerian bill closely, but declined to comment on how it may affect their outreach.

President Goodluck Jonathan promised the UN general assembly in June that his administration was “committing to increase national ownership of HIV and Aids responses” and to make those responses inclusive. Six months later, little has changed.

The health minister, Onyebuchi Chukwu, said the bill outlawing gay groups would not affect state-funded HIV and Aids programmes. The health ministry has no programmes specifically targeting these communities, said spokeswoman Rekia Zubairu.

Rights groups say the politicians’ resolve to pass the bill reflects widespread homophobia in Nigeria, but also shows their disconnect from working-class Nigerians, regardless of sexual orientation.

“They have the resources to go abroad for treatment, with their big salaries, so they don’t give a hoot about ordinary people,” gay rights organizer Dorothy Akenova said. “The majority of Nigerians are the ones who will suffer for it.”

The bill must still be passed by the House of Representatives and signed by President Jonathan before becoming law.

Bagpipes and cheers greet Tian Tian and Yang Guang, the first pandas to live in UK for 17 years

Two giant pandas – the first to live in the UK for 17 years – arrived in Scotland on Sunday. Tian Tian and Yang Guang arrived at Edinburgh airport at 1pm on a chartered nonstop flight from China.

The eight-year-old breeding pair are destined for Edinburgh Zoo, which will be their home for the next 10 years. Tian Tian, the female, whose name means sweetie, and Yang Guang, meaning sunlight, travelled from China on board a Boeing 777F flight dubbed the FedEx Panda Express, with a vet and two animal handlers.

Four pilots with “extensive experience” in transporting some of the world’s most precious cargo, including white rhinos and penguins, were on the flight. “I am delighted to confirm that the FedEx Panda Express has safely touched down at Edinburgh International Airport,” said Captain Paul Cassell.

“It was an absolute privilege and honour to fly Tian Tian and Yang Guang, and to be part of this significant moment to bring the pandas to their new home in the UK. Although every flight is unique, this flight has been particularly special – carrying such rare animals made the journey very exciting for all of us.”

The animals, who were given an in-flight meal of bamboo, apples, carrots and a special “panda cake”, were greeted at the airport by a large media presence.

The company said months of preparation and planning had made the journey possible. Their arrival also marks the culmination of a five-year effort to bring the giant pandas to Scotland.

They will now have two weeks to settle into their new enclosure before going on display to the public. It is hoped that the pandas will eventually have cubs.

The Scottish government and tourism officials hope the animals’ presence will boost the economy and visitor numbers.

Scottish ministers said the loan of the pandas symbolises a “growing friendship” between Scotland and China. First minister Alex Salmond is in China.

Animal welfare campaigners have criticised the move, suggesting it has more to do with commercial deals and was not a credible way to go about saving the endangered species.

Sweetie and Sunlight were born in 2003 and lived at the Ya’an reserve in Chengdu, China. While in Edinburgh, they will be in the care of the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland.

Online footage of the two animals, from four hidden “panda-cams” in their enclosures, is expected to attract viewers from around the world.

Edinburgh Zoo will grow about 15% of the bamboo needed to feed the giant pandas. The rest is to be imported from Amsterdam.

Scottish secretary Michael Moore was at the airport to welcome the pandas.

He said: “The arrival of Tian Tian and Yang Guang in Scotland marks another significant chapter in the relationship between China and the UK.

“The pair will be a huge asset to the zoo and Edinburgh and today marks the culmination of a great deal of work by UK government ministers and officials to bring the pandas here.

“That has been made possible by our influence on the world stage and our international network of relations. The pandas are a symbol of the regard in which the UK is held around the world. I have no doubt they will prove a huge attraction and warmly welcome them to their new home here in Scotland.”

Salmond will thank the Chinese vice-premier, Li Keqiang, in a meeting in Beijing on Monday.

Salmond said: “As panda-mania hits Scotland, and we extend a warm Scottish welcome to Tian Tian and Yang Guang, I am delighted to have the opportunity to personally thank the Chinese government and extend our thanks to vice premier Li Keqiang, who visited Edinburgh himself earlier this year.”

The plane touched down just after 1pm, with the first sighting of the pandas at around 1.40pm.

They were unloaded to the sound of bagpipes and cheers, with Tian Tian brought out first.

The flight crew was met on the tarmac by a delegation which included Moore, deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon and Edinburgh’s lord provost George Grubb.

Sturgeon said: “This is a historic occasion for Scotland and I am delighted to welcome these giant pandas to their new home. Securing the loan of this breeding pair is a considerable honour and a strong and compelling symbol of the friendship between Scotland and China.

“Having Tian Tian and Yang Guang at Edinburgh zoo is testament to the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland’s world-class reputation for research, science and conservation. They will undoubtedly be a huge draw for visitors, benefiting the Scottish economy and tourism sector.

“Scotland’s relationship with China is hugely important and the pandas represent a fantastic opportunity to deepen our business, cultural and diplomatic ties.”

Campaigners will say same-sex marriage is a threat to the family, religious freedom and civilisation itself

On Wednesday 30 November the first UK campaign organisation against marriage for same-sex couples was launched. With the Scottish government “minded” to pass legislation for gay marriage and the UK government planning to consult next year on similar legislation, we’ll be seeing this and other organisations taking off from now till equal marriage becomes law. In the US, where anti-marriage campaigns flourish across 49 states, we’ve had a clear view of how these people work, so what can we expect from them in the UK – and particularly in Scotland?

It’s unifying. In the US, Baptist, Catholic, evangelical, Mormon and Presbyterian churches unite to agree that same-sex couples shouldn’t get married: the alliance of Catholic and Protestant across sectarian barriers in Scotland is like an Old Firm match ending in a group hug.

They’re not homophobic. They’ll make a point of saying so, that’s how you know.

Allowing same-sex couples to marry redefines marriage. The ba’s on the slates, the penguins are out on parade, the definition of marriage is already changed. Scotland for Marriage means marriage as a privilege from which some groups are barred – just as Focus on the Family means some families aren’t included. It’s as if they think there isn’t enough marriage or family to go around.

The marriage of two men or two women is not real marriage because same-sex couples can’t have children. This theme is why so many anti-marriage groups call themselves “pro-family” and it’s remarkably consistent, from a Mormon science-fiction writer in 2004 to a Catholic bishop in 2011, thousands of miles apart and as divided in religion as two Christians can be, they none the less agree: marriage is not about two people pledging to love, honour, and cherish each other all their lives, marriage is about a man and a woman having children together.

Marriage is one of the building blocks of society and same-sex couples marrying are attacking the block! This is pure horror movie – lesbians and gays as invisible monsters with glittery mouths, an alien threat to civilisation, and the brave forces of the anti-marriage movement attacking the threat no one else can see. In a variant of this, gay people are Nazis. (Really: this is more widespread than you’d think.)

If same-sex couples get married, homosexuality will be taught in schools! This chestnut is a perennial favourite. What would a GCSE in homosexuality look like? There’s a theory current in some US evangelical circles that the only way someone “becomes” gay is if they’re taught to be gay by the gay people who go out of their way to spread gayness. The logic from this theory is that if only all the lesbian and gay and bisexual people in the world could be stuffed back into the closet, no one would ever become gay again. The kindest thing that can be said about this theory is that it is not borne out by anything we know about sexual orientation.

Allowing same-sex couples to marry is said to be an attack on religious freedom! The line is consistently pushed that if it is legal for religious organisations and ministers of religion to celebrate the marriage of a same-sex couple, it will become illegal to refuse to do so. There is no instance of this ever happening: the fears that it might seem to derive from T H White’s totalitarian anthill, “Everything not forbidden is compulsory”.

After years of Christian campaigning on gay marriage, by 2007 young people in the US were sure of one thing: Christianity is anti-homosexual. The deadline for responding to the Scottish government’s consultation on equal marriage is 9 December, the day before International Human Rights Day. You can respond via www.equalmarriage.org.uk.

James Bucknall, returning leader of British forces, is forthright about campaign’s weaknesses but says surge has worked

There is one task that James Bucknall will not miss as he returns to the UK after 18 months in Kabul.

From his office on the first floor of the military headquarters inside the city’s “green zone”, the general has written to the families of all the British soldiers, sailors and airmen who have died during his time there.

“That’s quite a lot of letters,” he says. “On a personal basis, you cannot shut yourself away from that, but it also makes me more determined to see things through.”

Bucknall remains forthright about the military campaign in Afghanistan. Some critics will say, not without reason, that he and other Nato commanders are in denial.

There are conflicting views about the extent of irreversible progress that has been made over the last two years, and what can still be achieved in the next two years – before security for the country is entirely in the hands of Afghans.

There is also gloom in diplomatic circles about the efforts to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, and about the willingness of Pakistan to help secure peace. There will be no lasting settlement without the former, and no regional stability without the co-operation of the latter.

Bucknall’s pitch is that the military campaign has turned a corner, but this isn’t properly recognised because the public is dog-tired of the fighting, and keen for Nato to get out.

And he believes that if there is a stampede for the exit between now and the end of 2014, then that will be the final misjudgment in a campaign that he accepts has sometimes been undermined by them.

That’s why he says the coalition has to stick together, and why looking back is sometimes as important as looking forward.

“I think people have forgotten where we were 15 months ago, when things weren’t looking very good at all,” he says. “We have forgotten how bad it was. I genuinely think we can say that the insurgents’ momentum across most of Afghanistan has now been reversed. I think we can say that the surge has worked. We can show it statistically and in other ways … we have had many false dawns in this campaign, overpromising and underdelivering, and we need to be very cautious about that. But we are on track.”

Bucknall points to the fact that in 2006 they were fighting a guerrilla army in Afghanistan, a series of organisations that “operated in large numbers, took ground and held ground, which is what armies do.” Since then, these groups have been forced to retreat into becoming “a terrorist organisation”.

“We had a really good winter [last year], we actually had a good summer,” he says. “Now we have to press really hard on the insurgents this winter. It is a time when they want a chance to recuperate. We need to sow deeply into their minds that they cannot achieve their ends by military means.”

Those are the conditions, he argues, that will push Taliban leaders to the negotiating table.

A counter-argument is made just as strongly by a coalition of analysts and politicians. Rory Stewart, the Tory MP and Afghanistan expert, has argued the “surge” may have fuelled the insurgency. The US Senate last Wednesday urged President Obama to bring more troops home early. Russian leaders, such as Viktor Ivanov, chief of drugs control, have said a withdrawal would stabilise Afghanistan.

None of them has spent as much time in Afghanistan as Bucknall over the last two years; for a day or two every week, he has left Kabul to tour the country’s fighting hotspots, talking to troops and Afghan elders.

He says nothing prepared him for Afghanistan; not his eight years serving in Northern Ireland, nor the time he spent in Baghdad during the second Gulf war.

“The complexity of operations here. One hesitates to say unprecedented … but there is a complexity of terrain [in Afghanistan] … and a regional picture which is much more complex than Iraq. The pressures playing on the coalition have been huge, with war-weariness and the economy … Someone once said to me, when will you know that it is over, and I said about two years afterwards.”

Have the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan brought to an end the era of ground invasions?

“No. Militarily we would be foolish and wrong to rule out this sort of intervention. But I absolutely understand the sentiment, and whether there is an appetite for this. People are always quite rightly seeking different ways of doing these things.”

Bucknall, 53, is reluctant to dwell on mistakes that have been made, but admits “it would be odd if after 10 years, we hadn’t learned a lot”. He says that it is time for someone else to bring fresh thinking to the job he is leaving. He wants to return to Afghanistan in time. It is, he admits, the sort of place “where you are always going to leave a bit of yourself behind”.